Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel says entitlement spending expected to consume all federal revenue by 2045

The Plain Dealer | by Stephen Koff | February 22, 2013

In 2045, federal revenues could equal 18.5 percent of the nation's gross domestic product, according to this CBO view. That includes all sources of federal revenue, including income taxes and corporate taxes as well as payroll taxes that are supposed to cover Social Security and a portion of Medicare.

Against that, Social Security spending could equal 6 percent of GDP, and Medicare 7.6 percent. Medicaid, children's health insurance and insurance subsidies for the Affordable Care Act could be the equivalent of 4.1 percent of GDP. Put together, the entitlements would equal 17.7 percent of GDP.

Mandel said that spending on entitlements "is projected to consume all revenue by 2045." While 17.7 percent of GDP is not 18.5 percent, it represents nearly 96 percent of the revenue -- extremely close. A 96 percent score in school would get you an A,

As for the merits of using the alternative projections, CBO itself noted on page 3 of its report: "Many budget analysts believe that the extended alternative fiscal scenario is more representative of the fiscal policies that are now (or have recently been) in effect than is the extended baseline scenario."



Related Publications